Back in August 2008, more than a month before Mr. McCain's catastrophic "Fundamentals of Economy Are Strong" and before the real start of the current financial calamity, this is what Billy D. had to say about the economy and election....
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
8/4/2008
Employment Instability may affect November Election
Job Security in Swing States May Be Deciding Factor for Voters
Scorelogix, a firm specializing in job security analysis, reports a continuation of the downward slide in National Job Security that began in November 2007. After a slight surge between March and April of this year, when national unemployment prospects seemed to brighten, the company reports a precipitous drop in the past two months.
The variability of this drop can be seen by examining two states projected to play pivotal roles in the upcoming presidential election. They are Florida and Ohio. Nationally, the company’s prediction of future employment, based on the Job Security Index™ or JSI, dropped by 7 points in June. The Florida drop was identical, while in Ohio, the JSI saw an 8 point drop.
Before November 2007, the nation’s Job Security prospects were steady, even rising. Since that time, a slow and steady drop has occurred, predicting a dimming employment outlook over the next twelve months. Ohio and Florida, relative to the nation, tell very interesting, very different stories.
In the past year, the Job Security trend in Ohio has been virtually identical to the national trend. As the national Job Security Index increased between June and November, Ohio’s index rose at a pace slightly better than the nation as a whole. In November, as the nation’s predicted job security dimmed, Ohio too began to experience an overall drop.
This does not tell the entire story, however. While the Ohio trajectory parallels the nation’s as a whole, the state’s numbers are significantly lower. The national Job Security Index ™, or JSI in July 2007 stood at 145.3. Ohio’s index, on the other hand, stood at at 125.6, a full twenty points lower than the national average. So while the trajectories have matched, Ohio’s remains a good deal lower than most of the country. Both the national JSI & Ohio’s JSI have dropped by approximately 15 points since November 2007. Ohio’s JSI, initially much lower than the nation’s, remains that much lower today. By way of comparison, Ohio’s highest recent JSI, 133 in November 2007, is only two points above the national low of 131.1 recorded in June of this year. Ohio’s lowest score, also recorded in the most recent data, is 114.8, a full 16.4 points lower than the national average.
Florida’s JSI pattern is different but no less worrisome. In July of 2007, Florida enjoyed a JSI of over 155, surpassed by only a handful of other states. But even as the nation’s index rose in the middle of last year, Florida began a slow decline that has picked up speed. Florida’s numbers dropped initially, and then remained steady through the end of last year into March 2008. Since March, however, Florida has seen a significant drop in Job Security. In the past four months, Florida’s JSI has dropped by over 15 points, losses that took nine months to accrue in Ohio and across the country. Since July 2007, Florida’s JSI has dropped over 23 points, leaving it just one point above the national average.
Worsening job security has accelerated in Florida over the past twelve months. Elsewhere in the country, as in Ohio, drops in Job Security have been troublesome, but not nearly as severe. While Florida’s JSI remains better than the nation or in Ohio, a continued acceleration into the next quarter and beyond could spell real trouble for the state.
These projections, at 85% accuracy, are evidence that the workforce in both of these critical states could be significantly more hard pressed than elsewhere in the country. The experts at Scorelogix therefore believe that predicted unemployment will play a major role in the November election outcome in each state.
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