FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

8/14/2008

Retail and Wholesale Job Security Index Plummets
Three Month Decline Capped by 9.9% Drop in July

The Scorelogix® Retail and Wholesale Job Security Index™ fell by 9.9 percent in July, marking the third month in a row that Retail and Wholesale job security has decreased. In the last thirteen months, the Retail and Wholesale Job Security Index™ has fallen eight times. This decline can be attributed to significant decrease in consumer disposable income, rising inflation, credit crisis and a weakening economy.

The decline in job security in Retail and Wholesale has occurred across all nine of the US census regions.  The regions which experienced the largest drop were the East North Central and Pacific regions.  The West South Central region recorded the smallest decrease in Retail and Wholesale job security at 8.4 percent.

The strongest individual States for Retail and Wholesale job security include South Dakota, Wyoming, Utah, and Nebraska.  Michigan is by far the weakest State for Retail and Wholesale job security, with Mississippi, Rhode Island, Alaska, and California all struggling in this regard as well.  

Top 10 States: JSI

 

1	South Dakota	174.1
2	Wyoming	169.9
3	Utah	163.2
4	Nebraska	162.8
5	Idaho	162.0
6	North Dakota	161.0
7	Iowa	153.3
8	Oklahoma	152.8
9	New Hampshire	149.9
10	Hawaii	149.4

 

 

                     Bottom 10 States: JSI

1	Michigan	60.2
2	Mississippi	82.0
3	Rhode Island	83.3
4	Alaska	89.5
5	California	92.9
6	Illinois	95.2
7	District Of Columbia	97.9
8	Ohio	100.7
9	Tennessee	101.2
10	Kentucky	101.5

Since April 2008, the Retail and Wholesale JSI has suffered an incredible 18.4% drop, signifying a continued lack of consumer confidence and resources.  This is by far the largest decline over a three month period in the past year, and the July drop of 9.9% is the biggest single month decline in that time period as well.  A crucial component to the reversal of these trends will be a stabilized economy and credit market, as these are intricately connected to individuals’ ability to spend money in Retail and Wholesale.

To obtain further information about Scorelogix’s Job Security Index, or to receive a more in depth analysis of the data provided above, please visit/email HERE.

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Press Releases

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

8/4/2008

Employment Instability may affect November Election
Job Security in Swing States May Be Deciding Factor for Voters


Scorelogix, a firm specializing in job security analysis, reports a continuation of the downward slide in National Job Security that began in November 2007. After a slight surge between March and April of this year, when national unemployment prospects seemed to brighten, the company reports a precipitous drop in the past two months.

The variability of this drop can be seen by examining two states projected to play pivotal roles in the upcoming presidential election. They are Florida and Ohio. Nationally, the company’s prediction of future employment, based on the Job Security Index™ or JSI, dropped by 7 points in June. The Florida drop was identical, while in Ohio, the JSI saw an 8 point drop.

Before November 2007, the nation’s Job Security prospects were steady, even rising. Since that time, a slow and steady drop has occurred, predicting a dimming employment outlook over the next twelve months. Ohio and Florida, relative to the nation, tell very interesting, very different stories.

In the past year, the Job Security trend in Ohio has been virtually identical to the national trend. As the national Job Security Index increased between June and November, Ohio’s index rose at a pace slightly better than the nation as a whole. In November, as the nation’s predicted job security dimmed, Ohio too began to experience an overall drop.
This does not tell the entire story, however. While the Ohio trajectory parallels the nation’s as a whole, the state’s numbers are significantly lower. The national Job Security Index ™, or JSI in July 2007 stood at 145.3. Ohio’s index, on the other hand, stood at at 125.6, a full twenty points lower than the national average. So while the trajectories have matched, Ohio’s remains a good deal lower than most of the country. Both the national JSI & Ohio’s JSI have dropped by approximately 15 points since November 2007. Ohio’s JSI, initially much lower than the nation’s, remains that much lower today. By way of comparison, Ohio’s highest recent JSI, 133 in November 2007, is only two points above the national low of 131.1 recorded in June of this year. Ohio’s lowest score, also recorded in the most recent data, is 114.8, a full 16.4 points lower than the national average.

Florida’s JSI pattern is different but no less worrisome. In July of 2007, Florida enjoyed a JSI of over 155, surpassed by only a handful of other states. But even as the nation’s index rose in the middle of last year, Florida began a slow decline that has picked up speed. Florida’s numbers dropped initially, and then remained steady through the end of last year into March 2008. Since March, however, Florida has seen a significant drop in Job Security. In the past four months, Florida’s JSI has dropped by over 15 points, losses that took nine months to accrue in Ohio and across the country. Since July 2007, Florida’s JSI has dropped over 23 points, leaving it just one point above the national average.

Worsening job security has accelerated in Florida over the past twelve months. Elsewhere in the country, as in Ohio, drops in Job Security have been troublesome, but not nearly as severe. While Florida’s JSI remains better than the nation or in Ohio, a continued acceleration into the next quarter and beyond could spell real trouble for the state.

These projections, at 85% accuracy, are evidence that the workforce in both of these critical states could be significantly more hard pressed than elsewhere in the country. The experts at Scorelogix therefore believe that predicted unemployment will play a major role in the November election outcome in each state.