For an index of the ones I did that have been used, as well as to check out the site I put together for them you can go HERE. They like the site a good deal, though changes and modifications are forthcoming.
And now, as promised....
For President Obama or President McCain, short term outlook the same: bleak.
Between May and July of 2007, the JSI (Job Security Index) dropped significantly, from 153.4 to 145.3. This prediction has been validated by recent unemployment numbers. Since April 2008, the jobless rate in this country has risen from 5% to 5.7%.
Such a drastic rise is troubling, especially if one considers that the significant drop predicted by the JSI in the early months of last year is nothing compared with where the JSI is today. When Scorelogix made their predictions between May and July of last year, the JSI, in the model, dropped to 145.3. Today, predicting for the next twelve months, that number has dropped a full 14 points, to 131.1.
By November 2007, job security had steadied somewhat, having regained half of the points lost between May and July 2007. However, as market forces began to take hold, and the full extent of the housing and credit crises became known, the JSI took a powerful, almost catastrophic turn downward.
Since last November, the JSI has dropped a startling 20 points, and this drop is predicted to manifest itself over the following 12 months, with no respite in sight. With the exception of a hopeful bump of 5 points between March and April of 2008, which quickly disappeared, the job security outlook for the coming twelve month period is bleak.
Ideally, energy prices will level out, the financial sector will find a sense of balance, inflation will steady, and the economy will start to generate momentum. Were this to happen, businesses would feel comfortable expanding their payrolls, in anticipation of a return to strong economic growth.
In the short term, this does not appear to be the case. Most economists predict that our current predicaments will haunt us for at least the next twelve to eighteen months, and the grim numbers from the JSI support this theory. While many analysts will argue that we have seen the worst of things in areas such as finance and housing, it is not clear that we have escaped increasing inflation and rising energy costs, and the most recent JSI models indicate that in the case of employment prospects, the worst is yet to come.
When a new President takes office in January 2009, there will be high hopes for a quick economic turnaround, complete with job creation and steady growth. But models such as Scorelogix’s JSI indicate that such a turnaround is unlikely, if not impossible, and the new President may find himself in hot water before he has even had a chance to get his feet wet.
###
There is no place for such drivel!
Posts
